Car Economics
Compare the true total cost of ownership (TCO) of any two cars. Mix EVs, petrol cars and any financing method to find your best choice.
All figures are in today's money: every rate on this page is real, i.e. above inflation. Why?
Shared Parameters
Capital tied up in each car has its opportunity cost charged at the global Market Return (5%/yr) set in the header.
Car A
Powertrain
Financing
Car B
Powertrain
Financing
| Metric | Car A · EV · Lease | Car B · Petrol · Cash | Advantage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cost of Ownership Net TCO over 5 yrs, incl. opportunity cost | €39,507 | €31,714 | -€7,794 |
| Crossover The year the cheaper car changes places | – | – | – |
What each choice actually pays
Where each car's net cost of ownership after 5 yrs lands: Car A · EV · Lease in the upper panel, Car B · Petrol · Cash in the lower one. This is a cost, so further left is cheaper. Both panels use exactly the same buckets, x axis and y axis, so a bar compares directly with the bar below it. Read the shapes, not the overlap: both cars' tied-up capital rides the same market in any one scenario, so the distance between these two peaks is not the odds of one beating the other. The Advantage column above settles that.
- Upper panel (Car A · EV · Lease): The share of scenarios in which car a · ev · lease finishes in each range.
- Lower panel (Car B · Petrol · Cash): The share of the same scenarios in which car b · petrol · cash finishes in each range. Both panels use exactly the same buckets, x axis and y axis, so a bar here compares directly with the bar above it.
- point at the chart: Hovering or tapping anywhere on the chart names the bucket under the pointer and, for each side, the share of scenarios that finish inside it, below it and above it (the three add to 100%). Dragging across the chart with the mouse zooms to what you selected.
- clipped tail: The ‹ and › percentages at the ends of the axis are the scenarios finishing outside the drawn range, each after a ■ in its side's colour. Up to 1.0% of one side's scenarios sit outside it; they are counted in every number on this page, just not drawn here.
Out-of-Pocket Cash per Year
Actual cash out of pocket each year (down payment in year 1, financing, energy, servicing and any lease return fee), with resale credit drawn below the zero line. These bars exclude opportunity cost, which stays inside the Net TCO figures above, so they will not sum to the KPI totals. A = Car A, B = Car B.
- Upfront: Down payment or full purchase price, paid in year 1 only.
- Financing: Monthly loan or lease payments made that year.
- Energy: Fuel or electricity cost for that year.
- Maintenance: Servicing and repair cost for that year.
- Return fee: Lease return fee, charged only in the final year of a lease.
- Shortfall: Remaining loan balance still owed above the resale value at exit.
- Resale credit: Cash received back from selling the car, drawn below the zero line.
- Opportunity cost: Large upfront payments (Cash) carry a higher opportunity cost than Loan down payments.
- Owner equity: for a Loan we credit only your equity (resale minus the outstanding loan balance still owed to the bank), so early years reflect a realistic financial position instead of dipping below zero. Leased cars have zero resale (the car is returned).
- Loan payment: payments stop at term, even if the horizon is longer.
- How the scenarios work: both cars' opportunity-cost funds are modelled as compounding at the SAME lognormal monthly return, with volatility σ = 15% (set in the header). Only the capital tied up in each car is randomised; energy, servicing, resale and loan schedules stay fixed. Figures marked P50 come from the smooth median-return path.
Loan payment (amortisation)
- P: loan principal (price − down payment)
- r: monthly loan rate = loan rate/100/12
- n: loan term, months
Car A monthly outflow
outA(m) = 15,000/12/100 × 17 × 0.45 + 200/12 + financingA(m)
- kmA: annual distance (shared by both cars)
- cA: Car A consumption per 100 km (kWh or L)
- pA: Car A energy price per unit
- MA: Car A servicing cost per year
- financingA(m): loan payment (Loan), lease payment (Lease), or 0 (Cash) in month m
Car B monthly outflow
outB(m) = 15,000/12/100 × 6.5 × 1.9 + 600/12 + financingB(m)
- kmB: annual distance (shared by both cars)
- cB: Car B consumption per 100 km (kWh or L)
- pB: Car B energy price per unit
- MB: Car B servicing cost per year
- financingB(m): loan payment (Loan), lease payment (Lease), or 0 (Cash) in month m
Opportunity-cost fund
- i: monthly opportunity rate = (1 + r/100)^(1/12) − 1
- r: global Market Return, set in the header
- initialCapital: full price (Cash) or down payment (Loan/Lease)
Resale value & equity at exit
resale(y) = price × (resalePct/100)^(y/5) equity(y) = resale(y) − outstandingLoan(y)
- price: car purchase price (0 for Lease)
- resalePct: entered resale value at horizon, as a %
- y: years since purchase
- years: ownership horizon
- outstandingLoan(y): remaining loan balance still owed at year y (0 unless financed by Loan)
Net TCO at horizon
TCO = oppFund(12 × 5) + returnFee − resale(5) + outstandingLoan(5)
- returnFee: lease return fee, charged only in the final year of a lease (0 otherwise)
- years: ownership horizon
Assumptions behind every figure: how this site models the market →
Every model leaves things out. Here is what this one does not see:
- Insurance and annual registration or road tax are not modelled at all. Whichever car actually costs more to insure or tax (EVs and performance cars often do) has that difference hidden entirely; the comparison silently assumes both premiums are identical.
- Home charger installation and any other EV-specific one-time setup cost is missing. An EV's energy-cost advantage doesn't account for the wallbox that made it possible.
- Resale % is a single point guess for each car; it doesn't move with mileage, condition, or battery degradation for EVs specifically. A car that ages worse than typical for its type looks cheaper here than it turns out to be.
- Unplanned repairs (accident damage, a component failing out of warranty) are not modelled, only the entered "Maintenance" figure: a smooth line, not the lumpy real-world one.