Rolex Cost of Ownership
Model the true monthly cost of owning a luxury watch (theft risk, service intervals, walk-out depreciation and used-market appreciation), benchmarked against cash savings and an equity index.
All figures are in today's money: every rate on this page is real, i.e. above inflation. Why?
Watch Details
Instant value loss when buying new
Used-market price growth above inflation
Risk & Maintenance
Applied to the watch's market value at time of theft
0.2 = once every 5 years
Service & Refurbishment
Alternative Investments
Interest minus inflation, often around 0
The equity-index alternative uses the global Market Return (5%/yr) set in the header.
| Metric | Alternative | Rolex | Advantage/mo |
|---|---|---|---|
| vs. Index Fund over 10 yrs | €24,433 | €11,167 | €111/mo |
| vs. Cash over 10 yrs | €15,000 | €11,813 | €27/mo |
| Total Drag Walk-out + service + theft | – | €4,521 | – |
What each choice actually pays
Where your net wealth after 10 yrs lands under each decision: investing in the index in the upper panel, buying the Rolex in the lower one. Both panels use exactly the same buckets, x axis and y axis, so a bar compares directly with the bar below it. Read the shapes, not the overlap: both options ride the same market in any one scenario, so the distance between these two peaks is not the odds of one beating the other. The Advantage/mo column above settles that.
- Upper panel (Investing in the index): The share of scenarios in which investing in the index finishes in each range.
- Lower panel (Buying the Rolex): The share of the same scenarios in which buying the rolex finishes in each range. Both panels use exactly the same buckets, x axis and y axis, so a bar here compares directly with the bar above it.
- point at the chart: Hovering or tapping anywhere on the chart names the bucket under the pointer and, for each side, the share of scenarios that finish inside it, below it and above it (the three add to 100%). Dragging across the chart with the mouse zooms to what you selected.
- clipped tail: The ‹ and › percentages at the ends of the axis are the scenarios finishing outside the drawn range, each after a ■ in its side's colour. Up to 1.0% of one side's scenarios sit outside it; they are counted in every number on this page, just not drawn here.
Net Wealth Comparison
Starting from €15,000: watch net wealth (appreciation minus running costs) vs the same capital in cash or an equity index.
- Index pot P10–P90 · 80% of scenarios: The middle 80% of simulated futures: 1 run in 10 ends above this ribbon and 1 in 10 below it.
- Index pot P25–P75 · middle half: The middle half of simulated futures: a quarter end above it, a quarter below.
- Rolex net wealth P10–P90 · 80% of scenarios: The middle 80% of simulated futures: 1 run in 10 ends above this ribbon and 1 in 10 below it.
- Rolex net wealth P25–P75 · middle half: The middle half of simulated futures: a quarter end above it, a quarter below.
- solid = median (P50) path: The solid line is the median (P50) path. Because returns compound, the arithmetic mean sits ABOVE the median: a few very good runs pull the average up.
Solid lines are the median (P50) paths; the fans are the P10–P90 range of the modelled return distribution at σ = 15% (set in the header): emerald for the equity-index pot, indigo for the Rolex's net wealth (its compounded running-cost drag is modelled riding the same market return as the index). Cash carries no fan: it compounds at a fixed rate with no market exposure.
Cash Paid Out after 10 Years
Receipts in today's money: what actually leaves your wallet. The net-wealth chart also charges each payment its lost index growth (compounded drag €2,917).
- Walk-out depreciation: You lose 15% (≈ €2,250) immediately at purchase. That is the gap between retail and grey-market price.
- Used-market appreciation: some sought-after watch models have held or gained value on the used market in the past; that is not guaranteed, and many models lose value. It is modelled here at 1%/yr above inflation, which you can set to zero or below.
- Theft risk (current-value-linked): As the watch appreciates, theft exposure rises with it: expected loss scales off current value, not the purchase price. Self-insuring: 100% of the watch's market value is at risk if stolen.
- Service & Refurbishment: 0.2 events/yr at €800 each, €1,600 total over 10 years.
- Running costs carry opportunity cost: service, theft loss and premiums are treated as money that would otherwise sit in the index, so they compound against the watch's net wealth (total drag €2,917 vs €2,271 raw cash). The charted net-wealth line nets this index-rate cost pot against watch value; the vs-cash figures instead compound the same costs at the 0% cash rate. These are two different discount rates for two different comparisons.
- Opportunity cost: The same €15,000 would grow to €15,000 in 0% cash (€27/month ahead) or €24,433 in the 5% index (€111/month ahead).
- How the scenarios work: the index and the watch's cost-drag pot ride the SAME lognormal monthly return (median 5%/yr, σ = 15%, set in the header). Only the watch's own appreciation, theft and service costs stay fixed, so both sides share identical market exposure. The solid line is the median (P50) path.
Rolex is a registered trademark of Rolex SA. This site is not affiliated with, sponsored or endorsed by Rolex SA; the name only describes the kind of purchase being modelled.
Watch value path
watchValue(0) = 15,000 × (1 − w), watchValue(m) = watchValue(m−1) × (1 + a)
- P: purchase price
- w: walk-out depreciation, as a fraction = walkoutDepreciation/100
- a: monthly appreciation = (1 + annualAppreciation/100)^(1/12) − 1
Monthly running cost
cost(m) = 800×0.2/12 + theftProb × lossFrac × watchValue(m) + insurance(m)
- serviceCost: cost per service event
- servicesPerYear: service events per year
- theftProb: monthly theft probability = theftProbPerYear/100/12
- lossFrac: loss fraction on theft: insuredLossFraction/100 if insured, else theftLossFraction/100
- insurance(m): monthlyInsurancePremium if insured, else 0
Compounded cost-drag pot (charged at the index rate)
- r: monthly index return = (1 + marketReturn/100)^(1/12) − 1
Rolex net wealth / benchmarks at exit
- c: monthly cash return = (1 + cashReturn/100)^(1/12) − 1
Monthly cost vs the index
- months: holding period in months = holdingYears × 12
Assumptions behind every figure: how this site models the market →
Every model leaves things out. Here is what this one does not see:
- Selling a watch means a dealer's spread, authentication fees, or a buyer haggling you down, not walking up to a fixed market price. Realised resale proceeds typically land below the modelled value, so the watch looks better here than it is.
- The watch's own resale value compounds at a flat, riskless rate while the cash/stock alternative gets the full P10-P90 fan. A specific reference's grey-market price can swing sharply in a single year (hype cycles, discontinued references, counterfeits flooding the market). That risk is invisible here, so the watch looks safer than it is.
- A watch can't be partially liquidated the way an index fund can, and finding a buyer at your price takes time. Cash and stocks are treated as instantly convertible here, the watch is not.
- The enjoyment of actually wearing it (status, a memory, a hedge against decision fatigue) carries no price tag; only the cost side of owning one is measured, so the model is blind to why anyone buys one in the first place.